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    Wednesday, November 4, 2020

    "Can you tell me please, who won?"


     

    It's a podcast.

    Topics: "Post-election day rhetoric analyzed, a stoical approach, the language of boarded-up windows, there will be math, and the squandered credibility of the press."

    You might want to subscribe on iTunes — here. Or subscribe on whatever podcast app you use. The podcast is a way to read the Althouse blog by ear, perhaps when you're out walking around, perhaps when you're taking a bath or falling asleep. There are many benefits to the podcast version of the blog. Not only can you do other things with yourself while listening, but the podcast has many extras beyond the text of the blog.

    An obvious point.

    "The Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania Appears to Be Overwhelmingly for Biden/The president leads by nearly 700,000 votes, but there are 1.4 million absentee votes outstanding."

    Headline at the NYT.
    So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters. If Mr. Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide.

    Biden needs to get 700,000+ more votes than Trump out of a pile of 1.4 million ballots.  If 78% of the uncounted ballots are for Biden, he can close the gap. But keep doing math. If the Biden percentage is 75%, it's dead even (with those big round numbers). Fall below 75% and Trump wins.